Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
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2021 Burnt River Market Value Summary
*Incorporates sales on Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Shadow and Four Mile lakes as well as the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratio for the 570 waterfront
sales across the key waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart is the most
effective measure of waterfront price trends due to the large number of data points and the fact that
average sale price-to-assessed value ratios tend to be quite consistent across the major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas.
- Waterfront prices continued to trend higher through 2021 and ended the year at historic highs and
almost double 2019 levels as pandemic-induced demand reached unprecedented levels. The only
interruption in this upward trend occurred in July and August of 2021 when buyer demand receded in
the expectation that the pandemic would soon be over following the wide vaccination rollout. Demand
and prices quickly bounced back once the Delta and Omicron variants emerged.
- There were 35 properties sold on the Burnt River in 2021, down slightly from 42 sales in 2020.
- The average sale price was $719,000, up 40% from $428,000 in 2020 and 114% from $336,000 in 2019.
Sale prices ranged from $306,000 to $1,500,000, with the latter representing an all-time high sale price
for a waterfront property on the Burnt River. 5 of the 35 sales exceeded $1 million in value.
- 27 of the 35 sales sold above the asking price, reflective of the dominant strategy of setting an attractive
list price and holding back offers in the hope of receiving multiple offers and above-asking sale prices.
- Looking forward, it is difficult to foresee any material reduction in buyer demand and prices in the
coming year unless we see the cessation of the pandemic and a return to pre-Covid living conditions
and/or materially higher interest rates.
2020 Burnt River Market Value Summary
- Waterfront market activity on the Burnt River and across the western Kawarthas was especially volatile
throughout 2020. It is therefore necessary to analyze the sales data on a monthly basis in order to
understand the underlying price trends.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply
the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for
each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales over a given time period. I consider the
extent to which the average changes over time a good proxy for waterfront price trends.
- The charts above summarize the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for each two-month
period in 2020. I have included a chart for both the Burnt River and for waterfront sales across the
western Kawarthas as the latter incorporates a larger number of sales and is therefore more statistically
significant. You can see that for the western Kawarthas, prices were strong in the first two months of
2020, slumped somewhat during the lockdown months, and increased substantially thereafter. Most
astounding are the post-September 1st results, which saw an additional upward surge in prices from
the summer. The 2.05 ratio realized from November and December sales across the western Kawarthas
is indicative of a 42% price increase from 2019, when prices were mostly flat throughout the year. Burnt
River prices increased even more relative to 2019 prices, which were relatively depressed due to the
2019 flood.
- This increase in prices is attributable primarily to the tidal wave of new demand from buyers in the GTA
who are eager for an escape from the pandemic-induced stresses of urban living.
- The average sale price for Burnt River properties (excluding building lot sales) in 2020 was $428,000, up 27% from $336,000 in 2019. Sale prices ranged from $194,000 to $788,000.
- The 41 sales on the Burnt River in 2020 were up from only 19 sales in 2019.
- Looking forward, I am optimistic that 2021 will continue to be positive for the waterfront market,
supported by the apparent seismic shift in buyer demand towards waterfront properties, continued low
interest rates, and relatively strong real estate markets in the GTA.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2020
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2020
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2020
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2020
2019 Burnt River Market Value Summary
- 2019 was a difficult year on the Burnt River as a result of severe flooding in the spring. The real estate market virtually shut down after the flood – there was only one sale in a flood-prone area in the three
months following the flood. The market re-gained its footing in August with seven sales recorded, and
sales volumes returned to normal levels through the fall season.
- The average sale price for waterfront properties on the Burnt River in 2019 was $336,000, down 12%
from $383,000 in 2018. Sale prices in 2019 ranged from $150,000 to $560,000.
- 39 waterfront properties were listed on the Burnt River in 2019 and only 19 (49%) sold. Nine (47%) of
the sold properties required one or more price reductions.
- The total of 19 sales in 2019 was down from 23 sold in 2018.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2019, the average ratio for the 19 Burnt River sales was 1.39, down 16% from the average
ratio of 1.66 realized in 2018. In contrast, the average ratio for the 185 waterfront sales on the key
lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas was 1.44, up 3% from 1.40 last year.
- Waterfront properties on the Burnt River also took longer to sell in 2019 - the median number of days
on the market for the 19 Burnt River sales in 2019 was 37 days versus 26 days in 2018.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront
market. I noticed strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s
2019 sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in
the early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which helps fuel demand for waterfront properties. A non-eventful spring run-off season would also help the
Burnt River market.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Uptick in sales activity in August
- There were four new listings and sales on the Burnt River in the September 1 to October 15 period. Listing activity continues to be higher, and sales lower, than in 2018. These dynamics are indicative of strong buyer market conditions.
- The average sale price for the 14 sales so far in 2019 is $351,000, down from the average $383,000 sale price in 2018. The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the 14 sales in 2019 is 1.42, significantly lower than the 1.66 average ratio for all sales in 2018. This is indicative of a general decrease in prices since the spring flooding event.
- There were a very high 18 listings on the Burnt River as at October 15, 2019.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
Uptick in sales activity in August
- There were six sales on the Burnt River in August, compared to only four in the previous seven months. Listing activity continued to be strong, with six new listings during the month.
- The average sale price for the 10 sales so far in 2019 is $375,000, in line with the average $383,000 sale price in 2018. However, the average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the 10 sales in 2019 is 1.40, slightly lower than the 1.66 average ratio for all sales in 2018. This is indicative of a general decrease in prices since the spring flooding event.
- There were a very high 20 active listings on the Burnt River as at August 31, 2019.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
Only four sales so far in 2019.
- While listing activity is up slightly from 2018 levels, there have only been four sales so far in 2019, versus 14 during the same period in 2018. It appears that the flooding of the Burnt River earlier this year has significantly impacted market activity. Of the four sales so far in 2019, two of the properties are not on the flood plain and the other was sold prior to the flood.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
Only three sales so far in 2019.
- While listing activity is in line with 2018 levels, there have only been three sales so far in 2019, versus 10 during the same period in 2018. It appears that the flooding of the Burnt River earlier this year has significantly impacted market activity. Of the three sales so far in 2019, two of the properties are not on the flood plain and the other was sold prior to the flood.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
Only two sales so far in 2019.
- It appears that the flooding of the Burnt River earlier this year has impacted market activity, with both new listings and sales lower than in the same period in 2018.
Burnt River Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
Only one sale so far in 2019.
- While the number of new listings so far in 2019 is only slightly down from the same period in 2018, there has been only one sale in 2019 versus five in 2018.
- It remains to be seen what impact the flooding of 2019 will have on market activity going forward.
2018 Burnt River Market Value Summary
- This analysis is based on the portion of the Burnt River within the City of Kawartha Lakes.
- The average sale price for waterfront properties on the Burnt River was $383,000 in 2018, up 18% from
$324,000 in 2017, and 60% from $240,000 in 2015. The lowest sale price in 2018 was $135,900 while
the highest was $720,000.
- There were 23 sales in 2018, up from 19 in 2017.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 23 Burnt River sales was 1.66, significantly higher than the
ratio of 1.28 realized in 2017. The average ratio across the six key lakes in our region (Balsam/Cameron/
Sturgeon/Four Mile/Shadow/Head) was 1.38, unchanged from 2017. It would appear therefore that
there is much more upward momentum in prices on the Burnt River than in other areas of the western
Kawarthas.
- Another indicator of a strong market on the Burnt River is the relatively short period required to sell
a waterfront property. In 2018 the median number of days on the market for properties sold on the
Burnt River was 26 days, much less than the median of 48 days for the six key lakes in our region.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- In contrast to the relatively slow spring market, the fall market for waterfront properties was very
strong across the western Kawarthas. On the Burnt River, eight waterfront properties were sold
post-September 1st, versus five prior to June 1st.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season
property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four-
season capability.
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
