Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our core service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner
2023 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the
ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each time period.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for the almost 1,100
waterfront sales across the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020.
This chart effectively tells the story of the pandemic market and its aftermath.
- Prices were choppy in 2023, rising early in the year, falling with the onset of the banking crisis in March,
and weakening further in the summer and early fall after the resumption of interest rate increases by the
Bank of Canada. Prices rebounded late in the year once fears of additional rate increases receded.
- Notwithstanding the unwinding of the pandemic-induced bubble, price levels remain 67% above 2019 levels.
- In contrast to most lakes in the western Kawarthas, sales activity on Cameron Lake in 2023 was robust,
with 11 sales compared to 6 sales in 2022 and 5 sales in 2021.
- Sale prices for the 11 sales in 2023 ranged from $800,000 to $1,835,000. The average sale price was
$1,126,000, up from the 2022 average of $1,023,000.
- The average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value ratio for the 11 sales in 2023 was 2.32, slightly lower than the
average ratio of 2.39 for waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas in 2023.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that prices will improve in 2024 as my sense is that many
buyers feel ready to re-enter the market now that the interest rate increase cycle appears to have ended.
2022 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the 12
major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas as well as across the entirety of cottage country. I have
included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this database adds credibility
to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas in December 2022 so I
would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
- Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at very
low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and sale
prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to increase
in late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the autumn.
Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above pre-pandemic levels.
- There were 6 cottage sales on Cameron Lake in 2022, up from 5 sales in 2021.
- After May 31st, only 3 of the 7 active cottage listings sold, with sale prices averaging $108,000 (12%)
under the original asking price.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 6 sales in 2022 was 2.46, lower than both the
2.75 average multiple realized across the western Kawarthas and the 2.65 multiple realized across cottage
country. The lower average multiple for Cameron Lake in 2022 was reflective of the fact that most of the
Cameron Lake cottage sales were seasonal in nature.
- The average sale price of the 6 sales was $1,023,000, down 23% from $1,337,000 in 2021. Sale prices
ranged from $400,000 to $2,050,000.
- It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return
to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.
2021 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
*Incorporates sales on Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Shadow and Four Mile lakes as well as the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratio for the 570 waterfront
sales across the key waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart is the most
effective measure of waterfront price trends due to the large number of data points and the fact that
average sale price-to-assessed value ratios tend to be quite consistent across the major waterbodies in
the western Kawarthas.
- Waterfront prices continued to trend higher through 2021 and ended the year at historic highs and
almost double 2019 levels as pandemic-induced demand reached unprecedented levels. The only
interruption in this upward trend occurred in July and August of 2021 when buyer demand receded in
the expectation that the pandemic would soon be over following the wide vaccination rollout. Demand
and prices quickly bounced back once the Delta and Omicron variants emerged.
- Market activity was very low on Cameron Lake in 2021, with only 5 waterfront properties sold versus 8
in 2020 and 14 in 2019.
- Sale prices ranged from $675,000 to $2,210,000, which was an all-time high sale price for a residential
waterfront property on Cameron Lake.
- 4 of the 5 sales sold for above-asking sale prices, reflective of the dominant strategy of setting an
attractive list price and holding back offers in the hope of receiving multiple offers and an above-asking
sale price.
- Looking forward, it is difficult to foresee any material reduction in buyer demand and prices in the
coming year unless we see the cessation of the pandemic and a return to pre-Covid living conditions
and/or materially higher interest rates.
2020 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
- Waterfront market activity on Cameron Lake and across the western Kawarthas was especially
volatile throughout 2020. It is therefore necessary to analyze the sales data on a monthly basis
in order to understand the underlying price trends.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales over a given time period.
I consider the extent to which the average changes over time a good proxy for waterfront price trends.
- The charts above summarize the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for each two month period in 2020. I have included a chart for both Cameron Lake and for waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas as the latter incorporates a larger number of sales and is therefore more statistically significant. You can see that for the western Kawarthas, prices were strong in the first two months of 2020, slumped somewhat during the lockdown months, and increased substantially thereafter. Most astounding are the post-September 1st results, which saw an additional upward surge in prices from the summer. The 2.05 ratio realized from November and December sales across the western Kawarthas is indicative of a 42% price increase from 2019, when prices were mostly flat throughout the year.
- This increase in prices is attributable primarily to the tidal wave of new demand from buyers in
the GTA who are eager for an escape from the pandemic-induced stresses of urban living.
- The average sale price for Cameron Lake properties in 2020 was $901,000, up 25% from
$720,000 in 2019. Sale prices on Cameron Lake in 2020 ranged from $695,000 to $1,200,000.
- The 8 sales on Cameron Lake in 2020 were down from 14 sales in 2019.
- Looking forward, I am optimistic that 2021 will continue to be positive for the waterfront market,
supported by the apparent seismic shift in buyer demand towards waterfront properties, continued low interest rates, and relatively strong real estate markets in the GTA.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2020
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2020
Sales picked up in July
- There were four waterfront sales on Cameron Lake in July. Year-to-date new listing and sales activity continue to lag behind activity in previous years however.
- Property owners appear to be reluctant to put their property on the market during the pandemic, while there are large numbers new buyers looking to purchase waterfront properties. Refer to my "Western Kawarthas" analysis for more detail of these trends.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2020
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2020
2019 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
- The Cameron Lake market was relatively strong in 2019 in relation to other key lakes and rivers across
the western Kawarthas.
- 18 waterfront properties were put on the market in 2019 and 14 (78%) sold. This is a much higher
percentage than realized across the 10 key lakes and rivers across the western Kawarthas, where of the
305 properties put on the market in 2019, only 185 (61%) sold.
- The average sale price of $720,000 in 2019 was up 4% from $694,000 in 2018. Sale prices ranged from
$385,000 to $1,200,000.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2019, the average ratio for the 14 Cameron Lake sales was 1.45, up 12% from the ratio of
1.30 realized in 2018. This increase outperformed the average ratio calculated across all key lakes and
rivers in the western Kawarthas, where the ratio increased by 3% to 1.44 in 2019 from 1.40 in 2018.
- Waterfront properties also sold more quickly on Cameron Lake – the median number of days on the
market for the 14 sales was 32 versus a median of 46 days last year. The median number of days
to sell waterfront properties across the western Kawarthas was stable year-over-year at 47.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront market.
There was strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s 2019
sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in the
early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which
helps fuel demand for waterfront properties.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
2018 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
- The average sale price was $694,000 in 2018, up 5% from $659,000 in 2017.
- There were 13 sales in 2018, in line with the 12 sales recorded in 2017.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 13 Cameron Lake sales was 1.30, down slightly from the
ratio of 1.33 realized in 2017. The average ratio across the six key lakes in our region (Cameron/Balsam/
Sturgeon/Four Mile/Shadow/Head) was 1.38, unchanged from 2017. These ratios support my belief
that waterfront prices were stable year-over-year.
- Waterfront properties took much longer to sell in 2018 – the median number of days on the market
for properties sold on the six key lakes in our region was 48 days, more than double the 2017 median
of 23 days. On Cameron Lake, the median was 46 days in 2018 versus 35 days in 2017. My explanation
for this increase is that buyers from the GTA who had experienced a double-digit percentage decline
in their home values were expecting similar declines in cottage prices in 2018. Cottage sellers, on the
other hand, were not willing to reduce prices in line with GTA trends as a result of their belief that
“bubble” conditions were not evident in our market. This gap in pricing expectations was resolved
largely in favour of sellers, as evidenced by stable year-over-year prices.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- The waterfront selling season started very slowly in the western Kawarthas but picked up momentum
as the season progressed. The post-September 1st market was very strong.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season
property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four-
season capability.
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to impact buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2018
Listing and sales activity, and sale prices, are in line with 2017 levels.
- Post-Labour Day listing and sales activity has been in line with last year. Year-to-date activity is also largely consistent with last year.
- The three properties sold in the post-Labour Day period have been the three highest sale prices on the lake in 2018. The average sale price for all 2018 sales is now $663,000, in line with the $659,000 average price for all 2017 sales on Cameron Lake.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the 11 sales so far this year is 1.29, down slightly from the 1.33 ratio realized for all sales in 2017.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018
- Since April 30, there have been three new listings and no additional sales on the lake. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 18/18), total sales volume on the lake is $1.35 million, down from $3.0 million for the same period last year.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018
- Waterfront market activity on Cameron Lake so far in 2018 is in line with the same period last year. Since Jan. 1, 2018, there have been eight new listings and three sales on the lake. Last year during the same period there were also eight new listings and three sales. This trend is in sharp contrast to neighbouring Balsam and Sturgeon Lakes, where the market is considerably slower in comparison to last year.
- The three sales so far this year were all below $500,000 in value. In contrast, the three sales in the same period the previous year were all above $500,000 in value.
- The three sales this year also had a relatively low average sale price to assessed value ratio of 1.17, in comparison to the average of 1.33 for all Cameron Lake sales in 2017 (see summary below).
2017 Cameron Lake Summary
- The average sale price on Cameron Lake was $659,000 in 2017, up 17% from 2016.
- Twelve properties were sold in 2017, down significantly from the record high level of 24 in 2006.
- Market dynamics on Cameron Lake (and all of the western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings.
- Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages (up to $600,000) continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
- The trend to higher market values on Cameron Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Cameron Lake was 1.33, a 25% increase from the 1.06 ratio realized in 2016.
- The 2017 trend on Cameron Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Balsam/Sturgeon/Four Mile/Shadow/Head).
- Looking forward to the 2018 season, early indications are that cottage buyer interest remains high, supported by a stabilizing housing market in the GTA. It remains to be seen whether higher interest rates and new mortgage stress test rules will negatively impact the cottage market.
