Dalrymple Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update
Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our core service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner
2023 Lake Dalrymple Market Value Summary
The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the
ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each time period.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for the almost 1,100
waterfront sales across the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020.
This chart effectively tells the story of the pandemic market and its aftermath.
- Prices were choppy in 2023, rising early in the year, falling with the onset of the banking crisis in March,
and weakening further in the summer and early fall after the resumption of interest rate increases by the
Bank of Canada. Prices rebounded late in the year once fears of additional rate increases receded.
- Notwithstanding the unwinding of the pandemic-induced bubble, price levels remain 67% above 2019
levels.
- In contrast to most other lakes in the western Kawarthas, the number of sales on Lake Dalrymple
increased year-over year – from 9 in 2022 to 13 in 2023.
- The average sale price of the 13 sales in 2023 was $664,000, down 10% from $737,000 in 2022. Sale
prices in 2023 ranged from $400,000 to $1,000,000.
- The average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value ratio for the 13 sales in 2023 was 2.60, down 11% from the
2.91 ratio realized from 2022 Lake Dalrymple sales but 9% higher than the average ratio of 2.39 for
waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas in 2023.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that prices will improve in 2024 as my sense is that many
buyers feel ready to re-enter the market now that the interest rate increase cycle appears to have ended.
2022 Lake Dalrymple Market Value Summary
Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the 12
major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas as well as across the entirety of cottage country. I have
included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this database adds credibility
to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas in December 2022 so
I would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
- Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at
very low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and
sale prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to
increase in late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the
autumn. Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above
pre-pandemic levels.
- There were only 9 waterfront sales on Lake Dalrymple in 2022, down substantially from 28 sales in both
2021 and 2020.
- While almost every Lake Dalrymple property listed prior to May 31st sold quickly, only 3 of the 11 listings
that were active after May 31st sold, with sale prices averaging $169,000 (19%) less than the original
asking price.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 9 Lake Dalrymple sales was 2.91, moderately
higher than the 2.65 average multiple realized across cottage country and the 2.75 average multiple for
the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas in 2022.
- The average sale price of the 9 sales was $737,000, down 18% from $898,000 in 2021 reflective of a
higher number of seasonal cottages in the sales mix. Sale prices ranged from $529,900 to $1,018,000.
- It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return
to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.
2021 Lake Dalrymple Market Value Summary
*Incorporates sales on Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Shadow and Four Mile lakes as well as the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratio for the 570 waterfront
sales across the key waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart is the most
effective measure of waterfront price trends due to the large number of data points and the fact that
average sale price-to-assessed value ratios tend to be quite consistent across the major waterbodies
in the western Kawarthas.
- Waterfront prices continued to trend higher through 2021 and ended the year at historic highs and
almost double 2019 levels as pandemic-induced demand reached unprecedented levels. The only
interruption in this upward trend occurred in July and August of 2021 when buyer demand receded in
the expectation that the pandemic would soon be over following the wide vaccination rollout.
Demand and prices quickly bounced back once the Delta and Omicron variants emerged.
- There were 28 properties sold on Lake Dalrymple in 2021, unchanged from the 28 sold in 2020.
- The average sale price was $898,000, up 48% from $606,000 in 2020 and 100% from $449,000 in 2019.
Sale prices in 2021 ranged from $380,000 to $1,675,000, with the latter sale equalling the all-time high
sale price for a residential waterfront property on Lake Dalrymple. An 80 acre parcel of vacant land with
2,000 ft of waterfront on Lower Lake Dalrymple that sold for $2.1 million in October 2021 is excluded
from this analysis.
- 15 of the 28 sales sold at or above the asking price, reflective of the dominant strategy of setting an
attractive list price and holding back offers in the hope of receiving multiple offers and an above-asking
sale price.
- Looking forward, it is difficult to foresee any material reduction in buyer demand and prices in the
coming year unless we see the cessation of the pandemic and a return to pre-Covid living conditions
and/or materially higher interest rates.
2020 Lake Dalrymple Market Value Summary
- Waterfront market activity on Lake Dalrymple (both Upper and Lower) and across the western Kawarthas
was especially volatile throughout 2020. It is therefore necessary to analyze the sales data on a monthly
basis in order to understand the underlying price trends.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the
ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales over a given time period. I consider the extent to
which the average changes over time a good proxy for waterfront price trends.
- The charts above summarize the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for each two-month period
in 2020. I have included a chart for both Lake Dalrymple and for waterfront sales across the western
Kawarthas as the latter incorporates a larger number of sales and is therefore more statistically significant. You can see that for the western Kawarthas, prices were strong in the first two months of 2020, slumped somewhat during the lockdown months, and increased substantially thereafter. Most astounding are the post-September 1st results, which saw an additional upward surge in prices from the summer. The 2.05
ratio realized from November and December sales across the western Kawarthas is indicative of a 42%
price increase from 2019, when prices were mostly flat throughout the year.
- This increase in prices is attributable primarily to the tidal wave of new demand from buyers in the GTA
who are eager for an escape from the pandemic-induced stresses of urban living.
- The average sale price for Lake Dalrymple properties in 2020 was $606,000, up 35% from $449,000 in
2019.
- The 28 sales on Lake Dalrymple in 2020 were more than double the historically low 12 sales in 2019.
- Looking forward, I am optimistic that 2021 will continue to be positive for the waterfront market,
supported by the apparent seismic shift in buyer demand towards waterfront properties, continued low
interest rates, and relatively strong real estate markets in the GTA.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2020
Strong sales in August
- There were six waterfront property sales on Lake Dalrymple in August, a continuation of the market strength that has been evident over the past two years.
- There have been 15 sales and 16 new listings so far in 2020.
- The average sale price of the 15 sales so far this year is $508,000, up 15% from the $440,000 average sale price for all 12 Lake Dalrymple sales in 2019.
- The average sale price-to-MPAC assessed value ratio for the 9 sales so far 2020 is 1.89, up 17% from the average 1.61 ratio for the 12 Lake Dalrymple sales in 2019. This price increase is higher than the average price increase across the western Kawarthas in 2020 - refer to my "Western Kawarthas" for additional information.
- There were three active listings on Lake Dalrymple as at August 31, 2020.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2020
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2020
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2020
2019 Dalrymple Lake Market Value Summary
- The waterfront real estate market on Lake Dalrymple was relatively strong in 2019 in comparison to
other key lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas.
- 18 waterfront properties were put on the market in 2019 and 12 (67%) sold. Only two (17%) of the 12
properties sold required price reductions. These are higher proportions than realized across the 10 key
lakes and rivers across the western Kawarthas, where of the 302 properties put on the market in 2019,
only 185 (61%) sold, and 73 (39%) of the sold properties required price reductions.
- Nine of the 12 sales in 2019 were on Lower Lake Dalrymple and three were on Upper Lake Dalrymple.
There were six sales on Upper Lake Dalrymple in 2018.
- Seven of the 12 sales in 2019 were three-season properties, with the remainder four-season cottages/
homes.
- The average sale price of $440,000 in 2019 was up 14% from $394,000 in 2018. Sale prices ranged
from $302,500 to $583,000.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2019, the average ratio for the 12 Lake Dalrymple sales was 1.61, up 6% from the 1.52
ratio in 2018 and 42% from the 1.13 ratio in 2016. The year-over-year increase slightly outperformed
the 3% average increase in the ratio when calculated across all key lakes and rivers in the western
Kawarthas.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront market.
There was strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s 2019
sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in the
early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which
helps fuel demand for recreational properties.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Listing and sales activity are up from last year
- Market activity has been strong on Lake Dalrymple so far in 2019 with 14 new listings and 10 sales.
- The average sale price for the 10 sales was $438,000, up materially from the $394,000 average sale price in 2018.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the 10 sales in 2019 was 1.64, up from the 1.52 average for all sales on the lake in 2018. This 2019 ratio is highest of all the lakes and rivers we monitor in the western Kawarthas.
- There were seven listings on Lake Dalrymple as at October 15, 2019.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
Listing and sales activity are up from last year
- Market activity has been relatively strong on Lake Dalrymple so far in 2019 with 13 new listings and 9 sales.
- The average sale price for the 9 sales was $454,000, up materially from the $394,000 average sale price in 2018.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the 9 sales in 2019 was 1.64, up from the 1.52 average for all sales on the lake in 2018.
- There were eight active listings on Lake Dalrymple as at August 31, 2019.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
Listing and sales activity are up from last year
- Market activity has been relatively strong on Lake Dalrymple so far in 2019 with 11 new listings and 8 sales so far in 2019.
- The average sale price for the five sales was $458,000 versus $394,000 for all sales on the lake in 2018. The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the five sales in 2019 was 1.69, higher than the 1.52 average for all sales on the lake in 2018.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
Strong start to the season
- In contrast to most other lakes in the western Kawarthas, market activity has been relatively strong on Lake Dalrymple so far in 2019 with nine new listings and five sales.
- The average sale price for the five sales was $460,000 versus $394,000 for all sales on the lake in 2018. The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the five sales in 2019 was 1.60, slightly higher than the 1.52 average for all sales on the lake in 2018.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
Strong start to the season
- Market activity has been relatively strong on Lake Dalrymple so far in 2019.
- The average sale price for the four sales was $429,000 versus $394,000 for all sales on the lake in 2018. The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four sales in 2019 was 1.53, virtually unchained for the average for all sales on the lake in 2018.
Lake Dalrymple Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
Strong start to the season
- Lake Dalrymple has had the strongest start to the season of any lake in the western Kawarthas.
- Three of the five new listings in 2019 have been sold, and the fourth has been sold conditionally.
- There is not sufficient data at this time to provide reliable insight into 2019 price trends.
2018 Dalrymple Lake Market Value Summary
- The average sale price for waterfront properties on Lake Dalrymple was $394,000 in 2018, up 4% from
$380,000 in 2017, and 18% from $333,000 in 2016. Sale prices in 2018 ranged from a low of $225,000
to a high of $650,000.
- There were 17 sales in 2018, down from 24 in 2017.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 17 Lake Dalrymple sales was 1.52, up 18% from 1.29 in 2017 and 35% from 1.13 in 2016.
- The increase in Lake Dalrymple property prices was in contrast to other key lakes in the western
Kawarthas, where prices remained stable year-over-year.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- In contrast to the relatively slow spring market, the fall market for waterfront properties was very
strong across the western Kawarthas.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their waterfront properties year-round – if you have a three-
season property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to
four-season capability.
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
