Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our core service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner
2023 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the
ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each time period.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for the almost 1,100
waterfront sales across the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020.
This chart effectively tells the story of the pandemic market and its aftermath.
- Prices were choppy in 2023, rising early in the year, falling with the onset of the banking crisis in March,
and weakening further in the summer and early fall after the resumption of interest rate increases by the
Bank of Canada. Prices rebounded late in the year once fears of additional rate increases receded.
- Notwithstanding the unwinding of the pandemic-induced bubble, price levels remain 67% above 2019
levels.
- There were 164 MLS waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas in 2023, down a substantial 30%
from 233 sales in 2022 and 51% from 336 sales in 2021.
- Sales activity on Four Mile Lake was fairly robust in 2023 in comparison to other lakes. There were 9 MLS
sales on Four Mile Lake in 2023, compared to 6 sales in 2022 and 11 sales in 2021.
- Sale prices for the 9 sales in 2023 ranged from $700,000 to $1,551,100, and the average Sale Price-to-Assessed
Value ratio of the sales was 2.54, moderately higher than the average ratio of 2.39 for waterfront sales
across the western Kawarthas in 2023.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that prices will improve in 2024 as my sense is that many
buyers feel ready to re-enter the market now that the interest rate increase cycle appears to have ended.
2022 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the 12
major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas as well as across the entirety of cottage country. I have
included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this database adds credibility
to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas in December 2022 so I
would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
- Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at very
low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and sale
prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to increase in
late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the autumn.
Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above pre-pandemic levels.
- There were 6 cottage sales and 1 vacant lot sale on Four Mile Lake in 2022, down from 11 cottage sales
in 2021.
- After May 31st, only 3 of the 7 active cottage listings sold, with sale prices averaging $90,000 (7%) under
the original asking price.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 6 cottage sales in 2022 was 2.92, higher than
both the 2.75 average multiple realized across the western Kawarthas and the 2.65 multiple realized across
cottage country. The average multiple for Four Mile Lake in 2021 was 2.45.
- The average sale price of the 6 cottage sales was $1,271,000, up 8% from $1,178,000 in 2021. Sale prices
ranged from $795,000 to $1,825,000.
- It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return
to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.
2021 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
*Incorporates sales on Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Shadow and Four Mile lakes as well as the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratio for the 570 waterfront
sales across the key waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart is the most
effective measure of waterfront price trends due to the large number of data points and the fact that
average sale price-to-assessed value ratios tend to be quite consistent across the major waterbodies
in the western Kawarthas.
- Waterfront prices continued to trend higher through 2021 and ended the year at historic highs and
almost double 2019 levels as pandemic-induced demand reached unprecedented levels. The only
interruption in this upward trend occurred in July and August of 2021 when buyer demand receded in
the expectation that the pandemic would soon be over following the wide vaccination rollout. Demand
and prices quickly bounced back once the Delta and Omicron variants emerged.
- There were 11 properties sold on Four Mile Lake in 2021, in line with 2020 when there were 10 sales.
- The average sale price was $1,178,000, up 26% from $932,000 in 2020. Sale prices ranged from $750,000
to $2,600,000, with the latter sale equalling the all-time high sale price for a waterfront property on Four
Mile Lake.
- 6 of the 11 sales sold above the asking price, reflective of the dominant strategy of setting an attractive
list price and holding back offers in the hope of receiving multiple offers.
- Looking forward, it is difficult to foresee any material reduction in buyer demand and prices in the
coming year unless we see the cessation of the pandemic and a return to pre-Covid living conditions
and/or materially higher interest rates.
2020 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
- Waterfront market activity on Four Mile Lake and across the western Kawarthas was especially volatile
throughout 2020. It is therefore necessary to analyze the sales data on a monthly basis in order to
understand the underlying price trends.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply
the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for
each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales over a given time period. I consider the
extent to which the average changes over time a good proxy for waterfront price trends.
- The charts above summarize the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for each two-month
period in 2020. I have included a chart for both Four Mile Lake and for waterfront sales across the
western Kawarthas as the latter incorporates a larger number of sales and is therefore more statistically
significant. You can see that for the western Kawarthas, prices were strong in the first two months of
2020, slumped somewhat during the lockdown months, and increased substantially thereafter. Most
astounding are the post-September 1st results, which saw an additional upward surge in prices from
the summer. The 2.05 ratio realized from November and December sales across the western Kawarthas
is indicative of a 42% price increase from 2019, when prices were mostly flat throughout the year.
- This increase in prices is attributable primarily to the tidal wave of new demand from buyers in the GTA
who are eager for an escape from the pandemic-induced stresses of urban living.
- The average sale price for Four Mile Lake properties in 2020 was $932,000, up 54% from $604,000 in
2019. The 2020 average was heavily influenced by a $2.6 million sale in November that was the highest
ever sale price recorded on Four Mile Lake.
- The 10 sales on Four Mile Lake in 2020 were up slightly from the historically low 7 sales in 2019.
- Looking forward, I am optimistic that 2021 will continue to be positive for the waterfront market,
supported by the apparent seismic shift in buyer demand towards waterfront properties, continued low
interest rates, and relatively strong real estate markets in the GTA.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Report – 2020
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2020
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2020
Sales picked up in July
- Three of the four sales on Four Mile occurred in the past month. New listing activity continues to lag behind previous years however.
- Property owners appear to be reluctant to put their property on the market during the pandemic, while large numbers of new buyers have emerged. The result has been higher prices. Refer to my “Western Kawarthas” analysis for more detail of these trends.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2020
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2020
- No sales so far on Four Mile Lake in 2020. All three of the existing listings were also on the market in the previous two years.
- The Covid-19 crisis has resulted in a significant slowdown in both listings and sales across the western Kawarthas, leading to great uncertainty in the market going forward. At the present time there is no evidence of falling prices for waterfront properties and sellers are for the most part holding firm to their asking prices. The emerging trends of working from home and cottage vacationing as a replacement for air-travel vacations bode well for demand in the medium term, while the impending recession/depression represents a threat to short-to-medium term valuations.
2019 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
- Market activity in general was subdued on Four Mile Lake in 2019.
- Eleven Four Mile Lake properties were put on the market in 2019 and seven (64%) sold. Three (43%) of
the seven sold properties required one or more price reductions. These proportions are in line with
those realized across the 10 key lakes and rivers across the western Kawarthas, where of the 302
properties put on the market in 2019, 185 (61%) sold, and 73 (39%) of the sold properties required
price reductions.
- The total of seven sales on Four Mile Lake is an historical low dating back to 2004.
- The average sale price was $604,000 in 2019, down 17% from $724,000 in 2018. This decrease was
attributable primarily to the absence of high-end sales in 2019 – there were no sales above $900,000 in
2019 whereas there were three sales above $900,000 in 2018.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales
during the year. In 2019, the average ratio for the seven Four Mile Lake sales was 1.41, up 3% from
1.37 in 2018. This slight increase was in line with the average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the
185 waterfront sales across the key lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas, which increased 3% to
1.44 from 1.40 in 2018.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront
market. I noticed strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s
2019 sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in
the early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which
helps fuel demand for recreational properties.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Listing and sales activity in line with 2018, but average sale prices are lower
- Listing and sales activity so far in 2019 is in line with 2018 levels, but lower than in 2017.
- The average sale price for the seven sales in 2019 is $604,000, much lower than the $724,000 average for all sales in 2018 (which was influenced by the highest ever sale price on the lake).
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four sales in 2019 is 1.41, slightly above the 1.37 average ratio for all sales in 2018.
- There were three listings on Four Mile Lake as at October 15, 2019.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
- Listing and sales activity so far in 2019 is in line with 2018 levels, but lower than in 2017.
- The average sale price for the four sales in 2019 is $599,000, much lower than the $724,000 average for all sales in 2018 (which was influenced by the highest ever sale price on the lake).
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four sales in 2019 is 1.43, slightly above the 1.37 average ratio for all sales in 2018.
- There were three active listings on Four Mile Lake as at August 31, 2019.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
- Listing and sales activity so far in 2019 is in line with 2018 levels, but lower than in 2017.
- The average sale price for the four sales in 2019 is $640,000, lower than the $724,000 average for all sales in 2018 (which was influence by the highest ever sale price on the lake).
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four sales in 2019 is 1.41, slightly above the 1.37 average ratio for all sales in 2018.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
- Listing activity so far in 2019 is down from the same period in the previous two years, consistent with most other lakes in the western Kawarthas.
- The two sales so far in 2019 were sold at prices slightly above $500,000.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
- Two additional listings appeared in the last two weeks of May. Overall listing and sales activity remains below the same period in 2018 and 2017.
- The two sales so far in 2019 were sold at slightly above $500,000.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
Only one listing so far in 2019
- Consistent with most other lakes in the western Kawarthas, activity has been very low in comparison with 2018 and 2017.
- The one listing in 2019 was very highly desired however, with multiple offers and a sale price significantly above the asking price.
2018 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary
- The average sale price was $724,000 in 2018, up 10% from 2017, and 85% from 2015.
- The increase in 2018 was influenced by the late-fall sale of the most expensive waterfront property
on record on Four Mile Lake.
- Only Balsam Lake had a higher average sale price in 2018 among the six key lakes we monitor
(Four Mile/Shadow/Head/Balsam/Sturgeon/Cameron).
- A below-average nine properties were sold in 2018, down from 11 in 2017.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the nine Four Mile Lake sales was 1.37, down from the
historically high ratio of 1.54 realized in 2017. While this ratio taken in isolation would suggest falling
prices, it is important to note that the ratio can be volatile where there are few data points. The
aggregate ratio for the six key lakes in our region was unchanged year-over-year at 1.38, which
supports my belief that waterfront prices were relatively stable.
- Waterfront properties took much longer to sell in 2018 – the median number of days on the market
for properties sold on the six key lakes in our region was 48 days, more than double the 2017 median
of 23 days.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- The conventional wisdom that spring is the most active period for cottage sales was contradicted in
2018 – the post-September 1st market for waterfront properties in the western Kawarthas was much
stronger than the pre-June 1st market.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season
property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four-
season capability.
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2018
Listing and sales activity, as well as sale prices, are down from last year.
- The average sale price of the 8 properties sold to-date in 2018 is $607,000, down from the average sale price of $655,000 for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.33, also down from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2018
Sales are down from last year, and concentrated in lower-priced properties.
- August was a slow month on the lake, with no new listings and only one sale. Both listing and sales activity is down from 2017 on a year-to-date basis.
- The average sale price of the five properties sold to-date in 2018 is $626,000, down from the average sale price of $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.29, also down significantly from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2018
Sales are down from last year, and concentrated in lower-priced properties.
- Listing activity in 2018 is in line with last year, while sales are down.
- The average sale price of the five properties sold to-date in 2018 is $569,000, down significantly from the average sale price of $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.26, also down significantly from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.
- In contrast, the average Asking Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the seven active listings on the lake is relatively high at 1.68.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2018
Both listings and sales are down from last year.
- There were no new sales on Four Mile Lake in June 2018. Both listings and sales are down on a year-to-date basis in 2018 as compared to 2017.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2018
Sales so far this year have been concentrated at the lower end of the price range.
- Since April 30, there has been one new listing and one additional sale on the lake. Listing activity is down significantly from May 2017, when there were seven new listings and two sales. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 31/18), new listings are down moderately from last year.
- The average sale price of the three properties sold to-date in 2018 is $497,000, down significantly from the average sale price of $719,000 for the three properties sold in the same time period last year, and the $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the three sales so far this year is 1.22, down from the 1.47 ratio realized on the three sales in the same period last year, and the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year. These results are consistent with the trend highlighted last year where properties with lower assessed values sold for a lower multiple of assessed value.
- There are insufficient data points to provide confidence of a downward trend in pricing on Four Mile Lake so far in 2018. Indeed, the strong May results for Sturgeon Lake may provide some support – Sturgeon Lake trends tend to be a leading indicator of trends on other lakes in the region. Anecdotal evidence from our buyer agents that buyers are now coming out in much greater numbers also support the thought that the market may improve as we move into the summer months.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018
- Since April 30, there has been one new listing and one additional sale on the lake. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 18/18), total sales volume on the lake is $1.3 million, down from $2.1 million for the same period last year.
Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018
- There has been somewhat more market activity on Four Mile Lake so far in 2018 than in the same period last year. There have been five new listings and two sales over the Jan. 1 – Apr. 30 period versus two new listings and one sale during the same period last year. There are insufficient data points to identify a definitive trend, but market activity on the larger lakes such as Sturgeon and Balsam lakes suggest more of a buyer’s market in 2018 in contrast to the seller’s market in 2017.
- The two sales in 2018 yielded an average sale price to assessed value ratio of 1.26, well below last year’s average of 1.55 for all 2017 sales on Four Mile Lake (see summary below).
- The four active listings as at April 30, 2018 had an average list price to assessed value ratio of 1.49, in line with last year’s average of 1.55 for all 2017 sales on Four Mile Lake.
2017 Four Mile Lake Summary
- The average sale price was $655,000 in 2017, up 23% from 2016, and 68% from 2015.
- Eleven properties were sold in 2017, unchanged from 2016. However, 2017 was unusual in that 8 of the 11 sales occurred in the north-east corner of the lake. There were very few listings on other areas of the lake in 2017.
- Market dynamics on Four Mile Lake (and all of the western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings.
- Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages (up to $600,000) continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
- The trend to higher market values on Four Mile Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Four Mile Lake was 1.55, a 57% increase from the 0.99 ratio realized in 2016. There was a distinct difference in ratios in 2017 depending on the assessed value of the property. The average ratio for properties with assessed values above $400,000 was 1.61, while the average ratio for properties with assessed values below $400,000 was 1.43. This indicates that cottage buyers were willing to pay a premium for top quality properties.
- The 2017 trend on Four Mile Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Shadow/Head/Balsam/Sturgeon/Cameron).
