Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our core service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner
2023 Head Lake Market Value Summary
The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the
ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each time period.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for the almost 1,100
waterfront sales across the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020.
This chart effectively tells the story of the pandemic market and its aftermath.
- Prices were choppy in 2023, rising early in the year, falling with the onset of the banking crisis in March,
and weakening further in the summer and early fall after the resumption of interest rate increases by the
Bank of Canada. Prices rebounded late in the year once fears of additional rate increases receded.
- Notwithstanding the unwinding of the pandemic-induced bubble, price levels remain 67% above 2019
levels.
- There were 164 MLS waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas in 2023, down a substantial 30% from
233 sales in 2022 and 51% from 336 sales in 2021.
- There were only three MLS sales on Head Lake in 2023 – a historic low. In contrast, there were 10 sales in
2022 and a historically high 30 sales in 2016.
- Sale prices for the three sales ranged from $600,000 to $1,250,000, and the average Sale Price-to-Assessed
Value ratio was 2.50, slightly above the 2.39 average ratio for all sales across the western Kawarthas.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that prices will improve in 2024 as my sense is that many
buyers feel ready to re-enter the market now that the interest rate increase cycle appears to have ended.
2022 Head Lake Market Value Summary
Western Kawartha waterbodies include Head, Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the
12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas (including Head Lake) as well as across the entirety of
cottage country. I have included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this
database adds credibility to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas
in December 2022 so I would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
- Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at very
low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and sale
prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to increase in
late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the autumn.
Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above pre-pandemic
levels.
- Sale prices on Head Lake substantially outperformed the broader market. The red circles on the chart
correspond to the month and assessed value multiples of the 10 cottage property sales on Head Lake in
2022. Most of the Head Lake sales occurred in the frenzied early months of 2022.
- The average sale price of the 10 Head Lake cottage sales was $987,000, up 27% from $776,000 in 2021.
Sale prices ranged from $590,000 to $1,466,000, with the latter sale setting the all-time high sale price
for a waterfront property on Head Lake. The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 10
sales was 3.83, much higher than the 2.65 average across cottage country and the 2.75 average for the
12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas.
- It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return
to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.
2021 Head Lake Market Value Summary
*Incorporates sales on Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Shadow and Four Mile lakes as well as the Burnt River.
- The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratio for the 570 waterfront
sales across the key waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart is the most
effective measure of waterfront price trends due to the large number of data points and the fact that
average sale price-to-assessed value ratios tend to be quite consistent across the major waterbodies in
the western Kawarthas.
- Waterfront prices continued to trend higher through 2021 and ended the year at historic highs and
almost double 2019 levels as pandemic-induced demand reached unprecedented levels. The only
interruption in this upward trend occurred in July and August of 2021 when buyer demand receded in
the expectation that the pandemic would soon be over following the wide vaccination rollout.
Demand and prices quickly bounced back once the Delta and Omicron variants emerged.
- There were 14 properties sold on Head Lake in 2021, up from 11 sales in 2020 and only six sales in 2019.
- The average sale price was $776,000, up 26% from $575,000 in 2020. Sale prices ranged from $335,000
to $1,400,000, with the latter sale equalling the all-time high sale price for a waterfront property on Head
Lake.
- 12 of the 14 sales sold above the asking price, reflective of the dominant strategy of setting an attractive
list price and holding back offers in the hope of receiving multiple offers and an above-asking sale price.
- Looking forward, it is difficult to foresee any material reduction in buyer demand and prices in the
coming year unless we see the cessation of the pandemic and a return to pre-Covid living conditions
and/or materially higher interest rates.
2020 Head Lake Market Value Summary
- Waterfront market activity on Head Lake and across the western Kawarthas was especially volatile throughout 2020. It is therefore necessary to analyze the sales data on a monthly basis in order to
understand the underlying price trends.
- The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each
sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales over a given time period. I consider the extent to
which the average changes over time a good proxy for waterfront price trends.
- The charts above summarize the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for each two month period in 2020. I have included a chart for both Head Lake and for waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas as the latter incorporates a larger number of sales and is therefore more statistically significant. While the trends for Head Lake prices are unreliable due to the low number of sales, you can see that for the western Kawarthas, prices were strong in the first two months of 2020, slumped somewhat during the lockdown months, and increased substantially thereafter. Most astounding are the post-September 1st results, which saw an additional upward surge in prices from the summer. The 2.05 ratio realized from November and December sales across the western Kawarthas is indicative of a 42% price increase from 2019, when prices were mostly flat throughout the year.
- This increase in prices is attributable primarily to the tidal wave of new demand from buyers in the GTA
who are eager for an escape from the pandemic-induced stresses of urban living.
- The average sale price for Head Lake properties in 2020 was $575,000, up 64% from $350,000 in 2019.
This very large increase can be attributed to higher prices as well as to a higher proportion of year-round, updated properties sold in 2020. Sale prices on Head Lake in 2020 ranged from $330,000 to $860,000.
- The 11 sales on Head Lake in 2020 were up from only 6 sales in 2019.
- Looking forward, I am optimistic that 2021 will continue to be positive for the waterfront market, supported by the apparent seismic shift in buyer demand towards waterfront properties, continued low interest rates, and relatively strong real estate markets in the GTA.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2020
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2020
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2020
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2020
2019 Head Lake Market Value Summary
- Nine waterfront properties were put on the market in 2019, and six sold. This was the lowest number
of sales on Head Lake since 2008.
- The average sale price of $350,000 in 2019 was the lowest since 2015. However, this relatively low
average sale price was attributable primarily to the mix of properties sold - one building lot, four older
seasonal cottages and an older year-round home. Sale prices ranged from $175,000 to $485,000.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales
during the year. The 2019 average ratio for the six Head Lake sales was 1.38, down 6% from
2018 but again this decrease is most likely attributable to the type of properties sold – older seasonal
properties typically sell for lower ratios than updated year-round properties. The average ratio across
the 10 key lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas was 1.44 in 2019, up 3% from 1.40 in 2018.
- The above statistics exclude the sale of the large waterfront property that comprises a large portion of
the southern shore of Head Lake. This property had been on the market for several years and sold in late September 2019.
- Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront
market. I noticed strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s
2019 sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in
the early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which
helps fuel demand for recreational properties.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Slow fall market.
- There have been no new listings or sales in the September 1 to October 15 period. The last sale on the lake occurred in June 2019.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four 2019 sales is 1.45, in line with the 1.47 average for all 2018 sales.
- There were four listings on Head Lake as at October 15, 2019.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Market activity has been in line with the previous two years, with eight new listings and four sales so far in 2019.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four 2019 sales is 1.45, in line with the 1.47 average for all 2018 sales.
- There were four active listings on Head Lake as at August 31, 2019.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Market activity has been similar to the previous two years, with seven new listings and four sales so far in 2019.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four 2019 sales is 1.45, in line with the 1.47 average for all 2018 sales.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Demand for Head Lake properties appears to be robust, as all four new listings so far in 2019 have sold relatively quickly.
- The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the four 2019 sales is 1.45, in line with the 1.47 average for all 2018 sales.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- All three new listings so far in 2019 have sold. The highest sale price so far this year is $400,000.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Unlike most other lakes in the western Kawarthas, market activity so far in 2019 in is line with the previous two years. Since January 1, 2019, there have been three new listings and two sales on the lake.
2018 Head Lake Market Value Summary
- The average sale price was $411,000 in 2018, down 10% from 2017.
- Ten properties were sold in 2018, in line with historical levels (except for 2016).
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 10 Head Lake sales was 1.47, up slightly from the average
ratio of 1.42 realized in 2017. The average ratio across the six key lakes in our region (Head/Shadow/Four Mile/Balsam/Cameron/Sturgeon) was 1.38, unchanged from 2017. These ratios support my belief
that waterfront prices were stable year-over-year.
- Waterfront properties took much longer to sell in 2018 – the median number of days on the market
for properties sold on the six key lakes in our region was 48 days, more than double the 2017 median
of 23 days. On Head Lake, the median was 35 days in 2018 versus 17 days in 2017. My explanation for
this increase is that buyers from the GTA who had experienced a double-digit percentage decline in
their home values were expecting similar declines in cottage prices in 2018. Cottage sellers on the
other hand were not willing to reduce prices in line with GTA trends due to their belief that “bubble”
conditions were not evident in our market. This gap in pricing expectations was resolved largely in
favour of sellers, as evidenced by stable year-over-year prices.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- The conventional wisdom that spring is the most active period for cottage sales was contradicted
in 2018 – the post-September 1st market for waterfront properties in the western Kawarthas was
much stronger than the pre-June 1st market. On Head Lake, only one property was sold prior to
June 1st, while five were sold after September 1st.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season
property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four-
season capability.
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2018
Sales activity has increased post-Labour Day.
- There have been four sales on Head Lake since September 1. Year-to-date listing and sales activity is now in line with 2017 levels.
- The average sale price for the 9 sales this year is $411,000, down from the $454,000 average price for all sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the 9 sales so far this year is 1.49, up slightly from the 1.42 ratio realized for all sales on Head Lake last year.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2018
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Since January 1, 2018, there have been ten new listings and five sales on the lake. This activity is in-line with the same period last year.
- The average sale price for the four sales this year is $386,000, down from the $454,000 average price for all sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the eight sales so far this year is 1.49, up marginally the 1.42 ratio realized for all sales on Head Lake last year.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2018
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Since January 1, 2018, there has been nine new listings and four sales on the lake. This activity is in-line with the same period last year.
- The average sale price for the four sales this year is $412,000, down from the $454,000 average price for all sales in 2017.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the eight sales so far this year is 1.54, up from the 1.42 ratio realized for all sales on Head Lake last year.
- There are currently six active listings on Head Lake, with an average Asking Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio of 1.54.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2018
Listing and sales activity is in line with last year.
- Since January 1, 2018, there has been six new listings and three sales on the lake. This activity is in-line with the same period last year, when there were six new listings and four sales.
- There are not as yet sufficient data points to permit any meaningful comparisons of sales prices year-over-year.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2018
Listing and sales activity is off to a slow start in comparison to last year.
- Since January 1, 2018, there has been three new listings and only one sale on the lake. This activity is down from the same period last year, when there were five new listings and four sales.
- There are not as yet sufficient data points to permit any meaningful comparisons of sales prices year-over-year.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018
- Since April 30, there has been one new listing and no additional sales on the lake.
Head Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018
- There has been very little activity on the lake so far in 2018, with only two new listings and one sale. This is no doubt attributable primarily to the late spring. Last year there were two new listings and three sales in the January to April period.
2017 Head Lake Summary
- The average sale price was $454,000 in 2017, up 19% from 2016, and 65% from 2014.
- Eleven properties were sold in 2017, down from a historically high level of 30 sales in 2016, but in line with pre-2016 levels.
- Market dynamics on Head Lake (and all of the Western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings. Bidding wars were common.
- Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
- The trend to higher market values on Head Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Head Lake was 1.42, a 20% increase from the 1.18 ratio realized in 2016.
- Kawartha Waterfront Realty listed two of the three highest priced properties on Head Lake in 2017. One of these sales in October 2017 was a record high sale price for Head Lake.
- The average Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio for the three properties sold by Kawartha Waterfront Realty on Head Lake in 2017 was 1.75, significantly higher than the 1.29 ratio achieved on the other eight sales (sold by a combined five other brokerages) in 2017.
- The 2017 trend on Head Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is broadly consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Shadow/Four Mile/Balsam/Sturgeon/Cameron).
