Pigeon Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update

2024 Pigeon Lake Market Value Summary

The market for waterfront properties remained very weak throughout 2024, with prices yet to respond positively to the five successive Bank of Canada rate reductions that began in June 2024.

The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.

Sales volumes were also extremely low in 2024, as buyers largely remained on the sidelines.

The difficulty in selling waterfront properties in 2024 was further evidenced by the fact that only 44% (155) of the 356 waterfront properties listed across the western Kawarthas in 2024 sold. And almost half (74) of those 155 properties that did sell required one or more price reductions. These 74 sales requiring price reductions were typically on the market for an extended period (median number of days on market of 136 days) and sold for significant discounts to the original list price (18% on average).

On Pigeon Lake, 59 cottage properties were listed in 2024 and only 25 sold, with sale prices averaging 13% under the original asking price. The average sale price was $1,064,000, up slightly from $1,014,000 in 2023.

There are some signs of an improved market heading into 2025. 31 percent of the 155 sales in 2024 across the western Kawarthas took place after September 1st – the highest proportion since 2019. We have also been receiving higher volumes of inquiries in recent months from buyers interested in purchasing a waterfront property.

However, any rise in waterfront prices arising from higher demand may be limited by increased listing supply – the unusually low number of sales since the Covid bubble burst in mid-2022 likely means there is a significant overhang of listings poised to come to market at the first sign of improving market conditions.

2023 Pigeon Lake Market Value Summary

The 12 major western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Canal, Crystal, Dalrymple, Four Mile, Head, Mitchell, Pigeon and Sturgeon lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.

• The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each time period.
• The chart above summarizes the average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios for the almost 1,100 waterfront sales across the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas since January 2020. This chart effectively tells the story of the pandemic market and its aftermath.
• Prices were choppy in 2023, rising early in the year, falling with the onset of the banking crisis in March, and weakening further in the summer and early fall after the resumption of interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada. Prices rebounded late in the year once fears of additional rate increases receded.
• Notwithstanding the unwinding of the pandemic-induced bubble, price levels remain 67% above 2019 levels.
• There were 23 direct waterfront sales on Pigeon Lake in 2023, with sale prices ranging from $535,000 to $2,200,000. The average sale price was $1,014,000.
• Sale prices on Pigeon Lake in 2023 were on average 9% under the original asking price.
• The average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value ratio for the 23 sales in 2023 was 2.25, slightly lower than the average ratio of 2.39 for waterfront sales across the western Kawarthas in 2023.
• Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that prices will improve in 2024 as my sense is that many buyers feel ready to re-enter the market now that the interest rate increase cycle appears to have ended.

2022 Pigeon Lake Market Value Summary

Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.

• The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each month.
• The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas as well as across the entirety of cottage country. I have included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this database adds credibility to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas in December 2022 so I would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
• Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at very low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and sale prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to increase in late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the autumn. Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above pre-pandemic levels.
• There were 39 sales on Pigeon Lake in 2022, down from 55 sales in 2021.
• After May 31st only 23 of the 50 active cottage listings on Pigeon Lake sold, with sale prices averaging $110,000 (10%) under the original asking price.
• The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 39 Pigeon Lake sales was 2.86, slightly higher than the 2.65 average multiple realized across cottage country and the 2.75 average multiple for the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas in 2022.
• The average sale price of the Pigeon Lake sales in 2022 was $1,180,000, up 8% from $1,090,000 in 2021. Sale prices in 2022 ranged from $430,000 to $2,700,000.
• It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.